Friday, March 23, 2007

Poll a mixed bag for Mini Bush

Let them dream: Harper's Tories on course for majority: poll. A favourable poll putting the Conservatives at 39% nationally in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Don't get too excited, Mini Bush.

I'd be interested to see polls in Quebec, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland right about now, with a few days of budget, shall we say, "aftermath" sunken in. You know, like Danny Millions taking a blood oath to throw the Conservative bums out...and Lorne Calvert having been called a liar by a federal Conservative MP...and Harper being perceived as threatening the Quebec electorate and the Quebec Premier now treating him like he's a skunk at the party...I wonder if those developments are reflected in these numbers?

And let's keep some perspective, people. Recall that Mini Bush got 36% in the last election. This poll suggests a mind-boggling growth in Conservative support of 3% in over a year...:) Oh yeah, he's cruising into majority territory...:)

I'm constantly amazed at the brouhaha over such numbers when the poll also provides these ones:
For example, the Conservatives now find themselves tied with the Liberals at 40 per cent support in Ontario, the first time since July that the Conservatives have cracked the 40-per-cent mark. In Quebec, the Tories and the Liberals are locked together at 24 per cent, each party just nine points behind the Bloc.
It has not taken much to dent Conservative growth in Ontario and Quebec thus far. And the Liberals have barely made an effort. And they're still a point better than where they were last year, with a new leader who has been slammed by a major media campaign and who is consistently underestimated. Remember this?

There was a reason Dion caught on and Harper and the gang needed to attack so quickly.

With Harper's foot-in-mouth disease, wild card MP's and a multitude of unknown events before us, nobody's walking away with a majority result anytime soon.