Monday, June 01, 2009

The polling roller coaster ride continues

This one is favourable, slightly so, to Liberals: "Tory ads attacking Ignatieff backfiring on Harper, poll finds." Recall last week's that was slightly favourable to Conservatives. Still tight in this latest but none of the numbers thus far are really that bad considering the massive Conservative ad onslaught that must be in the range of millions of dollars that's underway. That's an interesting question that the media might start asking, by the way, just how much money are the Conservatives spending on this campaign anyway? For weak results thus far. Today's:
The poll reveals that the Liberals have support of 33 per cent of voters nationally, the Conservatives have 31 per cent, the NDP 17 per cent, Bloc Québécois 9 per cent and Green party 7 per cent.

It also shows the Liberals have a 7-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario (43 per cent to 36 per cent). In B.C., the Liberals are in second place behind the Conservatives (45 to 26). In Quebec, the Liberals trail the Bloc by just three points (36 to 33) with Conservatives far behind at 10 per cent.
The ads are now being factored in to the questions and the ads appear to be reinforcing Harper's negatives, continuing a pattern we saw developing last week:
...while 42 per cent of poll respondents said their opinion of Ignatieff worsened after seeing the ad about the Liberal leader, 50 per cent said their opinion of Harper also worsened.

While the ad attempts to portray Ignatieff as an arrogant elitist, Canadians actually think Harper is the more arrogant, said Mario Canseco, vice-president of Angus Reid Strategies. And the reaction of the respondents who watched Ignatieff's rebuttal – airing on YouTube – was "remarkably positive." (emphasis added)
That latter point is good news for the moment when an Ignatieff response or advertising of any kind actually reaches a broader audience. But you know, maybe with such numbers the Liberals may be able to hold off on such a launch and let the Conservatives dilute their funds in the meantime. For some reason, this fun little clip comes to mind:

We'll see...onward to the next poll...