Monday, August 24, 2009

Outlier polls and the papers that love them

Ipsos poll being crowed about by Canwest today (nice picture!), August 24:
Cons 39, Libs 28, NDP 14, Green 10

Other most recent numbers from major Canadian pollsters this summer:

Ekos, August 20:
Cons 32.8, Libs 30.2, NDP 17.3, Green 11

Strategic Counsel, August 13:
Cons 34, Libs 32, NDP 15, Green 8

Nanos, August 10:
Libs 33.8, Cons 31.3, NDP 18.7, Green 7

Nanos additionally released a poll on August 22nd in which these results were produced:
Stephen Harper has had his chance and it is time for a change: 58.5%
Stephen Harper has done a good enough job to deserve re-election: 31.9%

Note that latter figure of 31.9%, in other words, comparable Conservative support to the other polls referenced above, other than Ipsos. As others are saying, unless a trend develops in other polls, it's fair to say that we're looking at an outlier poll.