Friday, October 02, 2009

The word that's coming to mind is "stabilize"

A brief post on today's Angus Reid release since Far&Wide is on hiatus at the moment, but if he were here, I think it might go something like this...

For the past few weeks, the numbers from AR have stabilized, in the 37-30 range for the Conservative numbers versus Liberal. Much like we're seeing with Ekos. AR had numbers like this in July too. Here's the AR chart on the last 2 weeks as compared to the 2008 election:

Two weeks ago, around September 16th, AR had the numbers at 36-29 too. Prior to that, on September 3rd, the Conservatives & Liberals were in a statistical tie, at 33-32.

What has made the difference? What has brought us back to this numerical equilibrium that we can't seem to ditch? It looks like a big factor is the volatility in Ontario. Which is good news and bad. In the September 3rd poll, it was 40-37 for the Libs in Ontario. Now in the past two weeks, AR is showing a big reversal, with the Cons now at 44-30. That 44-30 type Ontario figure came up two weeks ago too, when Steve was wondering if it was a one-off. So now with two similar results, it looks like Ontario could be an issue for Liberals at the moment. Could be, I say, because that 10 point swing in a month for the Liberals does show volatility. Something that needs to be paid attention to, nevertheless. The shift in position of the last month that has seen the Liberals wearing an election albatross has to be considered. There is support in the poll across the country (63%) for the notion that an election will make no difference to how Parliament works.

So, we may be settling in, back to the typical polling ranges we've seen over the past year. No other strategic insight here, think it's too early to see how the shifting fall political positioning is playing out for the long run. Stabilizing poll numbers make the argument though that it may be mattering less than we presently think.

Update: On same wavelength as Tribe who referenced the Ekos results yesterday in a similar framing.