Thursday, May 06, 2010

Nanos, Ekos and Martin

A Nanos poll released last night has these results:
Conservatives: 37.2 per cent (+2.5)
Liberals: 33.2 per cent (-1.4)
NDP: 16.2 per cent (-1.6)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.6 per cent (+1.9)
Green Party: 3.8 per cent (-1.4)
Ekos today, meanwhile, has these results:
The Tories garnered 33.1 per cent support, while 26.1 per cent of the respondents chose the Liberals.
...
The NDP came in third with 16 per cent of support, followed by the Green Party (11.5 per cent), and the Bloc Québécois (10.2 per cent).
Lawrence Martin today is drawing analogies between the growth of the third party in the U.K., the Liberal Dems, and possible growth for the NDP, citing mainly the 20 percent showing in that Harris Decima poll last week. While the poll numbers above seem volatile, the Decima result doesn't seem to be replicated so far. That scenario should probably be tempered somewhat. And again, Clegg's rise in the U.K. is largely attributable to the advent of televised debates there.

With respect to Nanos and Ekos (by the way, why do so many of our pollsters end in "os," Ipsos too?), a few things...

So the Liberals are at 33 in Nanos and 26 in Ekos...ok. Similarly, Nanos has the Liberals at 41 in Ontario, Ekos has them at 32. These are volatile numbers.

One of the biggest things to jump out...what is with the difference in the Green numbers as between these two pollsters? Nanos has them at 3.8 percent nationally and at the provincial levels, averaging at around the 4-6 percent range. Ekos, by contrast, has the Green numbers way up at 11.5 nationally, and consistently around that range in each of the provinces. They can't both be right. It would explain the higher Liberal number in the Nanos poll.

The Ekos numbers, for those who want to pore, might be interesting on the gender front. There are some strong women's results in support of the country not moving in the right direction question. Women 25-44 in particular are heavily negative about the moving in the right direction question. That may be some evidence of the discussion on the maternal health issue playing out.

Otherwise, a dog's breakfast given the variations. Not results anyone would really be looking to run on in an election. In that sense, they're probably helpful context as we head toward that Tuesday Speaker's deadline regarding the Afghan detainee document resolution.