Thursday, May 20, 2010

Perspective

Recent polling history...

Ekos May 20: Cons 34.4, Libs 25.1, NDP 15.3, Greens 12. Almost a 10 point lead.

Harris Decima May 17: Cons 32, Libs 28, NDP 17, Greens 11. A 4 point lead.

Nanos May 6: Cons 37.2, Libs 33.2, NDP 16.2, Greens 3.8. A 4 point lead.

It's still too much to ask for there to be discussion of multiple polls and trends as each new poll is unrolled, in what seems to be this at least weekly or so phenomenon. Media outlets all have their respective polls that they pay for and pump to the exclusion of others. It's a truly bizarre phenomenon that we're subjected to on a regular basis. But, that's nothing new and something to be dealt with. Still, it would be nice to see some consideration of the trends in the media.

This is not meant to be a denial type of post. Just pointing out a need for perspective on the discrete polling issue itself. Unless there's a 10 point lead/dynamic that's seen for a stretch in a number of polls, it's unclear that the principal polling dynamic that's been upon us for quite a while has changed. We know it well and many of us are desperate for it to start changing. But for today, I'll take a pass on the doom and gloom.

Update: One more, our memories are so very short these days. Recall this recent poll too, Harris Decima at the end of April had the Cons at 29, Libs at 27. End times!