Friday, August 20, 2010

About that Friday night poll just out

BCL has a post up already, just thought I'd point out something glaring in the reporting about that latest horse race poll released tonight by Sun Media.

This paragraph:
According to the poll, done exclusively for QMI Agency, if an election were held today 37% of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives, 28% would vote Liberal, 16% would vote NDP, with the Bloc Quebecois and Greens getting 9% and 8% respectively.
And then this final line of the report, as BCL points out:
The online survey of 1,500 Canadians over the age of 18 was conducted between Aug. 2 and Aug. 4 and is accurate to ±2.5%.
So clearly it's not at all accurate to say that if an election were held today those would be the results. That's just plain misleading to the viewing public and it shouldn't be written that way. It should have read, if an election were held 18-20 days ago, these would have been the results.

It also shouldn't be referenced as a "new Leger marketing poll." A few weeks does not make it "new." With the frequency of polls these days, even in a summer lull period, and the speed of events in a 24/7 news cycle, a few weeks can be like ancient history.

As for the numbers and the substance of the report, I'm sure others will have something to say about the comparability to some other polls.

What can't be measured here or in any other poll, however, is an intangible that I've seen reflected online and in reporting here and there...and that is the greatly improved mood among #lpc types as a result of this summer's tour. So really, it's not surprising at all to see such a poll gamed - I think that's quite fair to say given the timing - perhaps to stir up Liberal navel-gazing and doom-thinking. Good luck with that.

Do your own appropriate edits at home, make a game of it...:)