Thursday, September 30, 2010

New Ekos

The new Ekos is out, taken coincidental to and immediately after the gun registry vote: Cons 33.1, Libs 29.9, NDP 13.5, Green 10.9, Bloc 10.1.

There are some interesting questions posed this week about election outcomes. For example, support for a minority (16%) or majority (22%) Liberal government is gauged versus support for a minority (10%) or majority (26%) Conservative government. I.e., 38% prefer a Liberal government of some type to 36% preferring the Conservative type. Low level support for a Conservative minority, you don't say.

Hark! A coalition question enters the picture this week. 41% prefer a hypothetical coalition government of Liberals and New Democrats led by Michael Ignatieff versus 39% for a "Conservative government led by Stephen Harper." A very high 20% "don't know" on that one, probably due to the unfamiliarity of respondents with a coalition style government. So, it's a close split but still satisfying to read a poll result like this given the cartoonish Harper led rhetoric that has been attempting to demonize coalitions ever since the 2008 constitutional crisis. Whether this will give the PMO pause on their antics, who knows.

Election fever (if anyone has it) is probably unchanged. Might be an OK time to go for Liberals though.

And this delightful Harperland might even shake the landscape up a bit more. Sounds like a must read this fall.