Tuesday, October 05, 2010

About the gun registry being a winning issue for Conservatives...

They might want a re-think: "Two-thirds of Canadians back long-gun registry: poll." They likely already have. We haven't heard much on the gun registry from Conservatives following their defeat on the issue.

So what's the bad news? Fairly overwhelming support for the registry:
The national survey conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global Television finds that support for the registry stands at 66% nationally. Moreover, support is strong in regions throughout the country — even though Harper has said his party will not “rest” until it abolishes the registry.
Take a look at those bar graphs accompanying the report. Really astounding levels of support. 75% of women. 81% of those in the age group 18-34. In the Prime Minister's "regions" that he referenced on the steps in the Commons, post vote: 61% support in B.C., 57% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 66% in Ontario, 81% in Quebec, 59% in Atlantic Canada. Good luck with the "people in the regions" framing.

Notably, even among Conservative voters, a 47% support level is found versus 53% opposing. Not as strong a base solidifier as sold to the public. Also on the political aspect here, this issue could change a few votes:
The poll finds that 23% of Canadians say the results of the recent parliamentary tussle over Hoeppner’s bill could have an impact on how they vote in the next election.

Of those voters, roughly half (12%) said they will vote for a party that wants to abolish the long-gun registry while the remainder (10%) said they will vote for a party that proposes to maintain it.
In this minority parliament era, it's trite to say, but every little bit of swing could make a difference.

Contrary to some pre-gun registry vote polling on the issue, we can see that as the issue proceeds along, with greater focus crystallizing on the issue, viewpoints can change. We saw a similar phenomenon on the maternal health initiative polling back in the spring with a similar swing occurring once people sat up and paid more attention to the issue as the politics heightened.

The Conservative noise machine warrants a lot less attention, I'd say.


Update (8:30 p.m.): And more.