Friday, April 15, 2011

"Back down to normal"

This is fascinating, how it all seems to work out for Mr. Harper on these leadership numbers that Nanos is tracking on a daily basis. According to this analysis in the Globe this afternoon, Harper's numbers have fallen about 20 points yet that's termed a "normalization." He surges when they go up, yet it's a normalization when they go back down.
The spike in ratings for Stephen Harper’s leadership after Tuesday’s English-language debate has melted away as quickly as it came, but the Conservative chief still has a hefty edge.

Nanos Research recorded a surge for Mr. Harper on its leadership index after that first televised debate, when he jumped to 122.8 from 94.4. But when the next survey was conducted Thursday, he had slipped back to 103.3.

Pollster Nik Nanos called that a “normalization” for Mr. Harper, which does not appear to have be driven by any specific event or by Quebec respondents after Wednesday’s French-language debate.The one-day blip in leadership scores didn’t seem to translate into a significant bump in support Mr. Harper’s Conservatives.

“The English leaders’ debate is no longer news [so] he’s back down to normal again,” he said.
I'm sure the Harper campaign is quite content with that analysis. I see Harper's also down almost 11 points on this "most competent leader" measure. All normal, I suppose.