Monday, April 25, 2011

Monday election notes

A few quick items worth noting today...

1. "Ignatieff gives solid performance on Quebec talk show, but is it enough?" Yes, he did well last night in the big Quebec television performance with a notable endorsement by famed Quebec performer Dominique Michel.

2. Still too early to see if there's any uptick in Quebec from that appearance but the Nanos numbers are out. Big story does seem to be the upswing for the Conservatives in Ontario especially. Someone mentioned to me that the weekend numbers always seem to show that Tories just don't go out on the weekends, skewing the numbers:) But seriously, for what they're worth, and since everyone will be discussing this point, it may well be that the argument about stopping a Harper majority will be principally in Ontario.

3. If you missed it on the weekend, Conservative backbencher Brent Rathgeber was musing at an all-candidates' meeting on axing the CBC's funding. Dean Del Mastro, former parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Heritage similarly mused about that in November, 2010.

4. The NDP platform is getting more attention. Likely to see a lot more of that this week.

5. Another poll to read along with Nanos, this one citing widespread disgruntlement in the electorate and lots of uncertainty remaining.

6. And following from that poll, Glen Pearson wonders about who will show up on election day:
This is not a blog posting about Stephen Harper. Rather it’s about a good many Conservatives who are now without a home. I got to thinking about this proud man as I walked further down his crescent and a thought struck me that has been little mentioned in this campaign, if ever. What if the Conservatives don’t show up at the polls? It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. Something has changed in these last two-and-a-half years since the last election. During the 2008 campaign there were complaints galore at the doors about Liberals but largely silence on the PM. Spending the last four weeks canvassing has introduced me to a new form of negativism on the PM – his meanness, reckless spending of things like prisons and G8/G20 summits, his bloating of government. I’m not making this up – it’s just a reality at the doors. And a good amount of that is coming from Conservatives. They are no longer as sure as they were about the natural alliance between their own convictions and Harper’s direction.

A big deal has been made over and over in this campaign as to whether the Liberal vote will show up this time, as opposed to 2008. Good question. I can’t quite get a good read if it will materialize, although there seems to be energy at the grassroots level. But what if it’s the Conservatives that don’t show? Or worse yet, if hardly anyone shows? It has the potential of altering the outcome of the campaign, though few seem to be paying much attention to it.