Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Tuesday: Election notes

Sticking with this format today since the blog is suffering from a lack of time, apologies.

1. Why is that? It's get out the vote time and I'm trying to put in a bunch of time this week with my local campaign. If you haven't done so, Liberals out there who are reading this, it's more than past time to jump in! There is still a ton of work to do and I can pretty much guarantee that the volunteer coordinators out there would love to hear from you. There are tasks for every skill set, age group, personality. And you get to meet great, impressive people working hard for the same things you care about.

Work hard to win, Liberals, this is a big week and it is far from over, despite the latest narratives, despite the polls. If there is anything we've learned in this campaign, it sure as heck won't be over until indeed it is.

See for example: "...there’s still everything to play for in this last week."

And this item on an Ottawa seat covered by John Ivison today that could go from blue to red.

2. Speaking of polls, there are plenty to comment on. But, not going to at this point. Ekos had a 130 seat projection for the Conservatives yesterday. Ipsos, on the other far away hand, had a 201 seat projection on Thursday for the Conservatives. Nanos is showing a likelihood of a Conservative majority as well. As one of my regular blog pals commented to me, "somebody is delusional." Not necessarily meaning that a given pollster is delusional, I took that to be a general comment on the madness of our polling obsession right now and how they are changing rapidly. As a reminder about how much stock we should put into polls, there were some words of wisdom offered recently, here on this video. Toward the end, comments to the effect: "Be careful particularly in the last few days...remember that polls are looking in the rear view mirror...think about your own seat...the party dynamics might be different in some other region in the country..." I'm not minimizing that there are some trends but there are also swings going on at the moment and the result is anything but certain.

3. This story as it has developed is looking like rank incompetence. $3.5 billion in spending planned in year one of a cap and trade program that doesn't exist. Said spending hinging on the cap and trade program. When questioned, an oh so quiet walk back on the web site occurs, followed by a public shrug and an aw shucks, ok, we won't do that. We'll just do what any "family" would do with their family budget and "calibrate" the numbers. Uh huh. Tell me a family that would plan key expenditures based on wing and a prayer revenues. Not responsible ones, that's for sure. Economic credibility took a big hit on that one.

Looks like there's more in the way of legitimate questions being raised today. Will Jack just walk it back and shrug his shoulders again?

A P.S. on this one, "calibrate" (at Star link above) has been ruined, Jack. Not a good word for Canadian politicians anymore. Waaay too Harperesque.

4. One of the big stories of the past 24 hours, Harper in his own words, ad infinitum. Get to know him. All over again. It never gets any better. I think there are some people on Twitter tweeting their way through the entire thing.

5. Lawrence Martin today, always worth a read.

6. Great letter in the Star on the vandalism occurring in Toronto and across the country during this election campaign:
It’s perhaps no coincidence that tire-slashing and other electoral vandalism is escalating. And while Stephen Harper may condemn it, one can argue that there is a link between these acts and some of his actions.

Take the attack ads Conservatives ran for months before the election call. While other parties have contributed their small share, Harper has carpet-bombed the country with attacks aimed at persons, not policies. There is a difference. And in opting for personal attacks, Harper sets a tone.
That's the gist of the argument, it goes on from there and is powerfully written.

7. Finally...last town hall of the campaign, still packing 'em in: