Thursday, August 30, 2012

Toronto-Centre's rejigging

Interesting post by Chris Tindal today on the proposed re-drawing of Toronto riding boundaries and how it affects Toronto-Centre in particular. The upshot of his blog item is in its title: "New boundaries could turn a safe Liberal seat into one apiece for the NDP and Conservatives." Tindal ran as the Green candidate in the 2008 by-election that elected Bob Rae and it is worth a read for the map, the stats and its overall fair commentary.

As he notes, though, "Anything could still happen," in a closing header. That is very true, as we lived during the 2011 federal election. The colours of the Toronto map changed dramatically in 2011 from 2008 and there's no reason it couldn't again in 2015. We will have a more unpopular Harper party and a Mulcair who is still in early days as a leader but who will be a known commodity by then. Then there will be the impact of a Liberal leader yet to come. The issues of the day in 2015 are unknowns. We have a mayoralty election in 2014, that could impact the landscape as well.

For what it's worth, I don't recall, post 2008, a level of interest so keen in what would happen in the next election. At least, not at this micro-level among politicos, publicly pouring over maps and gaming the angles. It's a whole new era, that's for sure. It's also the public process of this riding re-drawing that is sparking this attention. It may be a possibly rude awakening for parties who need to get their ducks in a row yet ultimately a very helpful exercise.