Wednesday, September 17, 2008

The nightly battleground tumult

Tonight's Strategic Counsel battleground headline goes at the Conservatives again for the third straight day and says they're taking a hit in key Quebec ridings. The report tonight notes the tremendous amount of advertising going on there and how it's apparently affecting the battleground strength of the Conservatives. Quebec looks pretty fluid to me and too early to see how it's going to play out. It looks at the moment as if the Bloc is back in the lead and are now where the Conservatives were at the start. So they've switched places. They could very well switch again.

The Ontario battleground results are a little more interesting tonight. In those 20 Ontario ridings that are being tracked here, the Conservatives and Libs have pulled even at 35%. That could mean trouble for the Conservatives, but again, this thing has a big margin of error. There's been growth, apparently, in Green party numbers in those battlegrounds in Ontario and if there's a big push on to stop a Harper majority, as there is likely to be, a few points could move over to the Liberals and tip the ridings that way. So the Ontario battlegrounds look like they're very competitive. Looks good to me. Don't think Harper's trip here did much for him this week but I suppose we'll see.

Other things of note to watch here:

- just to keep us on our toes tonight, Strategic Counsel throws in a nationwide result: nationwide people don't believe the economy is going in the right direction, same as in the battlegrounds. Bad news for Conservatives who say we're golden with them

- the economy is the big issue in the Ontario & B.C. battlegrounds while it's still the environment by a hair in Quebec

- in B.C., Conservatives are well ahead and the NDP's fallen back to earth at 17%

It's a very uncertain state of affairs out there in those battlegrounds. Showing some trends, yes, but still suggesting it's far from over...