Monday, September 15, 2008

The nightly roller coaster...

The Strategic Counsel's nightly battleground report in the Globe is a dog's breakfast tonight. Read that headline, "Tories stalled in key ridings, poll suggests," then try and make sense of the rest of the report.

In saying the Conservatives have stalled in the battleground ridings in Ontario, overall, you'd think they're in trouble. Yet they're still ahead. As you move toward the GTA, however, the 905 battleground ridings show a narrowing to a five point lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals. So you're left to wonder what that lead means with a 5% margin of error, as there is in each province under this poll.

Also of some interest in tonight's poll, what's going on in the Quebec battlegrounds. The environment is beating the economy as an issue in the Quebec battleground ridings, perhaps to Dion's benefit. They are reporting women backing away from the Conservatives in the Quebec battleground ridings, again perhaps to Dion's benefit. They note a rise in Liberal numbers in respect of both the environment and with women.

Something to watch going forward is the Green party's strength in these Ontario ridings and if it holds toward the election. If it does, it might tip these ridings to the Conservatives. So we'll see if there's a coalescing at the end of the day.

Weeks more of this! We're so lucky the Globe has chosen to give us this nightly gift!