Friday, September 19, 2008

The tyranny of the battlegrounds continues...

Tonight's Strategic Counsel battleground poll seems to again take us in the direction we've been heading all week, at least in Ontario anyway, "Liberals gain traction in key Ontario, Quebec ridings." The Ontario battlegrounds are of the most interest for the second night in a row, as they're now showing the Liberals ahead 37-35 whereas last night it was 35-35. But again, broken record time, margin of error is about 5%. Still lots of time to see fluctuation there, but the trend has been down for the Conservatives and toward the Liberals. The Liberals look to have had a great event/day in the GTA with the entire team at the transit event, good optics that could keep the trend moving.

Quebec is pretty fascinating too and not what you'd expect for the Liberals at all given the constant doom and gloom we hear. The 15 Quebec battleground ridings being tracked by SC in Quebec show a 27-26-26 split, the Conservatives being at 27 and the Libs and Bloc at 26 in those ridings. That's pretty interesting. The Liberals weren't supposed to be in play in those ridings. Could it be an effective Quebec Liberal ad campaign is making a difference? Could be. I love those French ads on leadership and hope: "Cette fois, je vote Liberal." I wonder if they'd translate well in the rest of Canada. As a reader noted, that's a great tag line that could come into play at some point.

In the 10 B.C. ridings, the Conservatives are still in the lead, pretty strong at 43%. That is a figure that is just looking a little too high. Almost unreal.

Given the competitiveness in these battlegrounds in Ontario and Quebec, things could get nasty from certain parties. If you know who I mean...

By the way, completely off line from the At Issue panel goes to Dan Leger: "Harper has a cabinet of pygmies." Heh...:)

(see also FarNWide on this poll and Nanos)